How can I understand how far a stock is likely to move?                                                                                                                                              The statistical distribution of prices :: Normal distribution & Log-normal distribution Normal Distribution gives equal chance of prices occurring either above or below the Mean (which is shown here as 0). We are going to use normal distribution for simplicity’s sake. If a price distribution is considered Normal , 68.20% of the time, you will be within 1 standard deviation. Mostly, stock exhibits a normal distribution/bell-curve. A normal distribution of data means most numbers in a data set are close to the average, or mean value, and relatively few examples are at either extreme. In layman’s terms, stocks trade near the current price and rarely make an extreme move. Implied volatility (IV) is one of the most important conc